Model
Overfitting
quote
You not only have a natural tendency to think something specific is more probable than something general, but you also have a similarly fallacious tendency to explain data using too many assumptions. The mental model for this second fallacy is overfitting, a concept from statistics. Adding in all those overly specific dating requirements is overfitting your dating history. Similarly, believing you have cancer when you have a cold is overfitting your symptoms.
From
Chapter:
Being Wrong Less
Section:
Keep It Simple Stupid
