Model
Optimistic Probability Bias
quote
Sometimes you may want something to be true so badly that you fool yourself into thinking it is likely to be true. This feeling is known as optimistic probability bias, because you are too optimistic about the probability of success. NASA managers were way too optimistic about the probability of success, whereas the engineers who were closer to the analysis were much more on target.
From
Chapter:
Being Wrong Less
Section:
Don't Trust Your Gut
