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Arguing From First Principles

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The central mental model to help you become a chef with your thinking is arguing from first principles. It's the practical starting point to being wrong less, and it means thinking from the bottom up, using basic building blocks of what you think is true to build sound (and sometimes new) conclusions. First principles are the group of self-evident assumptions that make up the foundation on which your conclusions rest—the ingredients in a recipe or the mathematical axioms that underpin a formula.

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Chapter:

Being Wrong Less

Section:

Keep It Simple Stupid

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Inverse Thinking
Unforced Error
Antifragile
Arguing From First Principles
De-risking
Minimum Viable Product (MVP)
Premature Optimization
Ockham's Razor
Conjunction Fallacy
Overfitting
Frame of Reference
Framing
Nudging
Anchoring
Availability Bias
Filter bubble
Echo Chambers
Third story
Most Respectful Interpretation
Hanlon's Razor
Fundamental Attribution Error
Self-Serving Bias
Veil of Ignorance
Birth Lottery
Just World Hypothesis
Victim-Blame
Learned Helplessness
Paradigm Shift
Semmelweis Reflex
Confirmation Bias
Backfire Effect
Disconfirmation Bias
Cognitive Dissonance
Thinking Gray
Devil's Advocate Position
Intuition
Postmortem
Proximate Cause
Root Cause
5 Whys
Optimistic Probability Bias
Tyranny of Small Decisions
Tragedy of Commons
Spillover Effects
Public Goods
Herd Immunity
Free Rider Problem
Externalities
Coase Theorem
Cap-and-Trade
Moral Hazard
Principal-Agent Problem
Asymmetric Information
Adverse Selection
Market Failure
Goodhart's Law
Perverse Incentives
Cobra Effect
Streisand Effect
Hydra Effect
Observer Effect
Chilling Effect
Collateral Damage
Blowback
Boiling Frog
Short-termism
Technical Debt
Path Dependence
Preserving Optionality
Precautionary Principle
Information Overload
Analysis Paralysis
Perfect Is The Enemy of Good
Reversible Decisions
Hick's Law
Paradox of Choice
Decision Fatigue
Murphy's Law